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Is the bear market over? [LITE]
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Is the bear market over? [LITE]

Crypto is up a ton over the past two weeks. Are we out of the woods yet?

David Hoffman
Mar 28
10
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Is the bear market over? [LITE]
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Dear Bankless Nation,

The markets are alive! We’re going up.

In the last 14 days:

  • BTC: +25% 📈

  • ETH: +34% 📈

  • SOL: +40% 📈

  • LUNA: +14% 📈

  • AVAX: +37% 📈

And my new favorite DeFi Index $GMI is up an impressive 32% in the last 7 days and 45% in 2 weeks 🤯

Bitcoin and Ether are Up

We can see a similar pattern is across the macro crypto-assets, BTC and ETH.

BTC held the $35,000 (-50% of the high) level three times on the weekly chart. Apparently, that was enough to exhaust the bears and embolden the bulls as it’s surged up to $47,500 since the local lows.

ETH held the $2,300 (-53% off the high) twice and has since rocketed up 33% to $3,400.

The same channel seen in the BTC chart is also seen in ETH.

It’s probably not going to play out this simply… but if both BTC and ETH returned to the top of the channels, that would mean a ~$75,000 BTC and ~$5,500 ETH price, by sometime in July.

All-time high by July?

Coincidently “sometime near July” is also when the Merge is happening. It’s one thing to look at the shape of the chart, but when the shape of the chart aligns with the biggest supply shock to ever hit crypto, that’s when things get interesting.

This same pattern is showing up in the ETH/BTC ratio, which I’ve nicknamed the “bull market indicator” given how it loosely predicts crypto’s risk appetite.

If ETH/BTC followed this channel, a 0.095 ratio would produce an ETH price of ~$4,500 at current BTC prices, and $7,125 if BTC reached the aforementioned $75,000 level.

Even with these recent signals, I’m conflicted: markets are never this simple.

The market likes to buck people off the saddle and defy all expectations. But maybe the most unexpected outcome in this macro environment is a straight-line teleport to $7,500 leaving all stablecoin holders on the sidelines. 🤷‍♂️

I’m noticing TradFi market analysts increasingly tapped into the crypto markets too. People who usually talk only TradeFi now have their attention on the crypto.

Twitter avatar for @cfromhertzChristian Fromhertz 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @cfromhertz
$ETH #Ethereum Weekly Chart has held the '22 bottom of Value Area very well & now trending +
Image

March 28th 2022

2 Retweets15 Likes

Last bear market, it took people 3 years to realize that crypto wasn’t dead yet. This time, it seems that it just took 3 months for people to realize that Q1 2022 was a huge buying opportunity.

Maybe the supercycle is actually 3-10 smallcycles.

Is the Bear over? Did it even exist?

At what BTC and ETH prices do we finally declare the bear market over?

Does a 3-month downtrend from ATHs to 50% discounts even count as a bear market?

I don’t think anyone really knows the answer to these questions, but it’s always useful to look at what people do rather than what they say. And they’re buying. Every green day is a slap in the face to the bear market.

I think this captures the sentiment nicely. 👇

Keep my coin’s name out your ****ing mouth

- David

P.S. New Bankless MetaFactory merch is here! We’re talking handmade crotchet hats and “Probably Nothing” polo sweatshirts. And…42% back in ROBOT when you cop 🤖


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MARKET MONDAY:

Scan this section and dig into anything interesting

Market Numbers 📊

  • BED surges +13% to $120 from $106 last Monday

  • GMI moons +29% to $66 from $51 last Monday

  • DEX volume slips -6% to $14B from $15B last Monday

  • DeFi TVL rises +17% to $92B from $78B last Monday

  • L2 TVL jumps +6% to $6.7B from $6.3B last Monday

  • BTC funding rate drops down to +1.7% (Bitmex)

  • ETH funding rate falls to +9.8% (Bitmex)


Market opportunities 🤑

Yield Opportunities 🌾


What’s Hot 🔥

  • Creators of BAYC, Yuga Labs, raise $450M in round led by a16z

  • LimeWire unveils plans to dive into the Music NFT place (read the bull case here)

  • Avalanche launches $100M creator fund with Grimes

  • Israeli bank Leumi to offer BTC and ETH trading

  • Former SEC employee joins Syndicate DAO team

  • Ribbon Finance receives undisclosed amt of funding from Paradigm

  • Introducing Muffin—a new AMM that supports concentrated liquidity

  • Stargate bridge attracts $2B in liquidity within week of launch

Money reads 📚

  • Community is the new capital - Alifya Valiji

  • Crypto crimes & best security practices - hex6c

  • How Frax beat the rest - Jack Chong

  • How to survive crypto in the long run - Route2Fi

  • Multiples in Web2 and Web3 - Lydia Hylton


Trending Project 📈


What We’re Buying 👀


Governance Alpha 🚨


Meme of the Week 😂

Twitter avatar for @BanklessHQBankless 🏴 @BanklessHQ
Green market days hit different
Image

March 28th 2022

28 Retweets165 Likes

Jobs opportunities 🧑‍💼

✨ See all listings on the Bankless Job Board✨

  • Nori is hiring a product manager

  • Bankless is hiring a web developer (come join us!)

  • Bankless is hiring an editor (come join us!)

  • Bankless Academy is hiring a Senior Product Manager

  • SuperRare is hiring a Senior Product Manager

  • Syndica is hiring a Senior Full Stack Engineer

  • Syndica is hiring a Senior Go/Rust Engineer

  • Syndica is hiring a Operations Manager

  • SmartDeFi is hiring a Senior Product Designer

  • Messari is hiring a Software Engineer, Market Data

  • Messari is hiring a Blockchain Engineer, DAOs


Action Steps

  • 💰 Execute on any good market opportunities you saw

  • 🎙️ Listen to PoS vs. PoW with Lyn Alden and Justin Drake


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Want to get featured on Bankless? Send your article to submissions@banklesshq.com

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Not financial or tax advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This newsletter is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.


Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here.

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