Is the bear market over? [LITE]
Crypto is up a ton over the past two weeks. Are we out of the woods yet?
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Dear Bankless Nation,
The markets are alive! We’re going up.
In the last 14 days:
BTC: +25% 📈
ETH: +34% 📈
SOL: +40% 📈
LUNA: +14% 📈
AVAX: +37% 📈
And my new favorite DeFi Index $GMI is up an impressive 32% in the last 7 days and 45% in 2 weeks 🤯
Bitcoin and Ether are Up
We can see a similar pattern is across the macro crypto-assets, BTC and ETH.
BTC held the $35,000 (-50% of the high) level three times on the weekly chart. Apparently, that was enough to exhaust the bears and embolden the bulls as it’s surged up to $47,500 since the local lows.
ETH held the $2,300 (-53% off the high) twice and has since rocketed up 33% to $3,400.
The same channel seen in the BTC chart is also seen in ETH.
It’s probably not going to play out this simply… but if both BTC and ETH returned to the top of the channels, that would mean a ~$75,000 BTC and ~$5,500 ETH price, by sometime in July.
All-time high by July?
Coincidently “sometime near July” is also when the Merge is happening. It’s one thing to look at the shape of the chart, but when the shape of the chart aligns with the biggest supply shock to ever hit crypto, that’s when things get interesting.
This same pattern is showing up in the ETH/BTC ratio, which I’ve nicknamed the “bull market indicator” given how it loosely predicts crypto’s risk appetite.
If ETH/BTC followed this channel, a 0.095 ratio would produce an ETH price of ~$4,500 at current BTC prices, and $7,125 if BTC reached the aforementioned $75,000 level.
Even with these recent signals, I’m conflicted: markets are never this simple.
The market likes to buck people off the saddle and defy all expectations. But maybe the most unexpected outcome in this macro environment is a straight-line teleport to $7,500 leaving all stablecoin holders on the sidelines. 🤷♂️
I’m noticing TradFi market analysts increasingly tapped into the crypto markets too. People who usually talk only TradeFi now have their attention on the crypto.
Last bear market, it took people 3 years to realize that crypto wasn’t dead yet. This time, it seems that it just took 3 months for people to realize that Q1 2022 was a huge buying opportunity.
Maybe the supercycle is actually 3-10 smallcycles.
Is the Bear over? Did it even exist?
At what BTC and ETH prices do we finally declare the bear market over?
Does a 3-month downtrend from ATHs to 50% discounts even count as a bear market?
I don’t think anyone really knows the answer to these questions, but it’s always useful to look at what people do rather than what they say. And they’re buying. Every green day is a slap in the face to the bear market.
I think this captures the sentiment nicely. 👇
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Market Numbers 📊
BED surges +13% to $120 from $106 last Monday
GMI moons +29% to $66 from $51 last Monday
DEX volume slips -6% to $14B from $15B last Monday
DeFi TVL rises +17% to $92B from $78B last Monday
L2 TVL jumps +6% to $6.7B from $6.3B last Monday
BTC funding rate drops down to +1.7% (Bitmex)
ETH funding rate falls to +9.8% (Bitmex)
Market opportunities 🤑
Yield Opportunities 🌾
What’s Hot 🔥
Money reads 📚
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Multiples in Web2 and Web3 - Lydia Hylton
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What We’re Buying 👀
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Not financial or tax advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This newsletter is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
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