Dear Bankless Nation,
It’s the first Friday of the month — time for token ratings!
Even though prices are down, bear markets are a great opportunity to find the next big project.
Check out this thread from David to see what we mean:
Bankless Token Ratings are an ENTERTAINMENT ONLY analysis on whether you should buy, hold, or sell certain tokens based on our valuation models.
This month we’re initiating coverage on MPL, AAVE, APE, ENS, UNI, and revisiting MKR. 👀
Bankless Premium Subscribers get full access to the report.
Let’s get to the ratings. 🚀
- Bankless Team
🚨 None of the information in this article is financial advice. All of it is for educational purposes only. Please do your own research.
Token Ratings | June 2022 📊
Analyst notes, coverage, and six-month price targets on DeFi’s largest tokens
This report initiates analyst coverage on four tokens: MPL, AAVE, UNI, and APE. It also changes coverage on MKR.
Below, we’ll discuss the rationale behind each rating by delving into the catalyst prompting the initiation of coverage, as well as the impact we expect it to have on each token’s price.
When applicable, we’ll also provide an estimate of each token’s intrinsic value based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. These models are intended to value the core business for each of the protocols which are generating revenue for their respective DAOs. However, not all protocols which we are covering are generating revenue.
Rating Scale and Fair Value Estimates
Before we dive into the coverage and ratings, we’ll take a moment to explain our rating scale and fair value estimates.
The ratings reflect how we feel each token will perform over a six-month time horizon relative to the performance of the overall crypto-market (based on market capitalization).
The rating scale is as follows:
✅ Overweight: We expect this token to outperform the broader market over the next six months.
➖ Neutral: We expect this token to perform in line with the market over the next six months.
❌ Underweight: We expect this token to underperform the market over the next six months.
To help inform our ratings, we also provide valuation estimates for each of the covered tokens in which it is applicable. These valuations are derived via a discounted cash flow model and aim to value each protocol's core business offerings based on the revenues it generates and its future growth prospects, which are influenced by the catalysts discussed in this report.
While these models are certainly not the only factor that goes into determining a token’s rating, especially given the short-time horizon on which they are made, we view these fair value estimates as the price ceiling under which we would consider the token to be undervalued and if above, overvalued.
Now that’s out of the way, let’s dive into the report.
✅ Maple Finance (MPL)
🏅 Rating: Overweight
💲 Current Price: $29.42
🎯 Fair Value Estimate (Price): $26.85
We are initiating coverage of MPL — the governance token of Maple Finance — with a rating of overweight.
Catalyst Overview
This rating is being assigned due to the xMPL tokenomics upgrade and the announcement of Genesis as a pool delegate.
Maple recently launched a tokenomics upgrade in which holders of MPL can stake their tokens to receive xMPL. Similar to xSUSHI, xMPL holders are entitled to 50% of protocol revenue generated via loan origination fees. These fees are used to buy MPL on the open market, which is then distributed to xMPL holders.
It was also announced at the end of May 2022 that Genesis, crypto’s largest prime broker, will be a pool delegate on the protocol’s Solana deployment. The firm, which originated more than $131 billion worth of loans in 2021, will be contributing $75 million to the pool, and will initially lend to firms Wintermute and Amber Group.
Price Impact
Both xMPL and the onboarding of Genesis represent two strong catalysts to fuel MPL outperformance. The former greatly improves value accrual for MPL, as holders will be able to earn non-inflationary cash flow from staking tokens. The latter should help to drive adoption, growth, and revenue from originations to the protocol.
Along with increasingly bullish sentiment surrounding institutional and real-world asset based DeFi protocols, this should help offset emissions paid to lenders and lead to strength in MPL even amidst bearish conditions.